a) Uptrend
b) Downtrend
c) Side Way Trend
The Important to had macro understanding on how markets move assist in understanding the cycle of market movement. Hereby we look back the historical Gold Charts and see the nearest decades movement.
Charts below shows price have been, and guide the clues to repeating patterns and where it will lie ahead for the future.
From here, we can clearly see that from 1976 into 1980 peak, the gold futures from $ 101.5 per ounce rapidly growth to $ 873 per ounce. Obviously that is a big bull uptrend. Human is trade on emotions. This chart had show the fear and greed. Fear of missing out the chance in the bull move and Greed of wanting rush into a "Bull".
From here, the market start to stay backed and grooming into a sideway trend from around year 1982 to 1996 which gold being traded between $ 514 and $ 281. A 14 years sideways trend.
In the late 1990's gold started be traded in a low price about $ 320 on the upside and $ 255 on the downside. It ended the bears trend and forming the bulls trend. While a lot were still proclaiming gold to be a " dead " market and obsolete at this time.
Anyway, the cycle began to change and between 2001-2002 the bull of gold is in part and launched into a decade long uptrend cycle, which lead to the peak of above $1900 an ounce in the September 2011.
The history of chart had hints us- In Oct. 2012 to summer 2013 might be similar to September 1980-june 1982 sell off-- it could be leading to a anohter big long side way trend.
The major point here is?
a)Markets move in cycles.- It will repeat
b)Gold has likely end its decade-long bull cycle and is shifting into a sideways cycle.
c)In the sell-off after the 1980 peak, the market had been retraced around 61.8% of the entire rally move
d)The current sell-off from the 2011 peak is not even retraced 50% of the major bull run cycle—that means gold is in a stronger longer-term position now than it was after the 1980 price collapse.
a)Markets move in cycles.- It will repeat
b)Gold has likely end its decade-long bull cycle and is shifting into a sideways cycle.
c)In the sell-off after the 1980 peak, the market had been retraced around 61.8% of the entire rally move
d)The current sell-off from the 2011 peak is not even retraced 50% of the major bull run cycle—that means gold is in a stronger longer-term position now than it was after the 1980 price collapse.
Looking forward, there may be a long period of large sideways trade. The daily December Comex futures chart shows the range to be roughly $1,490 to $1,182 per ounce. This has offer a tradeable trends on a multi-day to multi-week basis for position traders. Retreats toward the range bottom would offer buying spots for long-term investors.
A lot of people believe that there will be another crisis around the corner for our global financial system, is just might be a matter of next year or in three years. Gold started retreated off its 2011 peak, but has not even retraced 50% of its major bull run cycle. Gold bulls are just biding their time. But, please be prepared that the sideways cycle would take some time to play out.
By,
Tim Tan
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